这几天的股票是涨疯了，H股至少也快涨了30%。今天DOW也一下疯的刷了200多点，人人都觉得要么经济还OK，即使不OK FED也会CUT INTEREST。然后CREDIT CRUNCH好像也过去了，没什么好担心的。
连FRED这样一直BEARISH的人都开始全部买股票了。我在这个时候要保持冷静，太贵的股票还是不要买。现在手上的货也不该卖，RUNNING WITH PROFIT，或许设置个LOSS CUT ORDER。虽然我感觉这个股票会涨上去，还是要小心点好。少赚点钱肯定比亏好。这也算自己炒股快1年的第一次RISK MANAGEMENT 呵呵
Monday, 1 October 2007
Monday, 20 August 2007
2007年8月股灾的一点感受
今天看了下我买的那些INVESTMENT，1年来赚的钱都差不多全部WIPE OUT了。随着FED把DISCOUNT RATE减下来后，其实很多INVESTMENT价钱都慢慢涨了回去了。这次感觉亏太多是因为卖得太慢，差不多是在BOTTOM卖的，有些基金如果早卖1，2天就可以保住10%的RETURN。
算是第一次经历这个股灾，真的是到了最后慌到什么都卖了。其实碰到这种市场一直跌，应该慢慢的就该减持了而不应该等到最后在BOTTOM给卖掉。
减低风险，以后看见市场不对的时候就该慢慢的把手上的POSITION走完。等市场稳定再慢慢入货。市场的上的钱也不是那末好赚的呀，市场好人人都能赚钱，经过这次才发现自己有很多要学的。FUNDMENTAL ANALYSIS在市场比较稳定的时候是有用的，不过到了这种极端的市场还是要靠稳不能太看重FUNDEMENTAL 在这种市场什么样的好公司一样的跌。
算是第一次经历这个股灾，真的是到了最后慌到什么都卖了。其实碰到这种市场一直跌，应该慢慢的就该减持了而不应该等到最后在BOTTOM给卖掉。
减低风险，以后看见市场不对的时候就该慢慢的把手上的POSITION走完。等市场稳定再慢慢入货。市场的上的钱也不是那末好赚的呀，市场好人人都能赚钱，经过这次才发现自己有很多要学的。FUNDMENTAL ANALYSIS在市场比较稳定的时候是有用的，不过到了这种极端的市场还是要靠稳不能太看重FUNDEMENTAL 在这种市场什么样的好公司一样的跌。
Friday, 17 August 2007
Stock market 2007 Aug
这几天的股市真的让人坐过山车。DOW JONES, FTSE都跌过了10%，香港更是神奇今天8月17大市先跌了1200多点，收市的是一个大RALLY，以跌200多点收市。日本NIKKEI一天就跌了5%。最后FED减低了DISCOUNT RATE美国在这个周末收市的时候终于给稳住了。不过我觉得大市还要继续震荡下去。
这算是我经历的第一次小股灾，（说不定就是个大股灾的开始）。以前赢利的基金可能知是持平，香港股票也从250万跌到210万，然后全部大清仓。经历了这些想写点东西也算是从这次股灾里面的一点经历
1）前照
这次股市大跌是因为美国SUBPRIME然后那些SECURITATION价格没人明白，银行收紧CREDIT。然后一些FUND没法让投资者赎回，不管什么ASSET 只要能套钱就买，杀得整个FINANCIAL MARKET一片大红。
其实在6月的时候就看到英国的2个PROPERTY FUND因为赎回太多，要收赎回的费用。然后7月多的时候BEAR STERAN 2个HEDGE FUND出事，8月初（也就是在大跌之前）BNP 2个FUND出事，那天ECB 和FED就拿钱出来救市，象MARKET INJECT CAPITAL来EAST CREDIT CRUNCH。 其实在出事之前已经很多征兆。这次大跌是因为CREDIT CRUNCH引起的，虽然现在全球经济不象以前那末明朗，不过也没到坏到一塌糊涂。以后看到这些征兆就应该提前做好准备了。在我写这个BLOG的时候也不知道这次的股灾是否结束。不过我还是认为还没有完全结束，银行那些卖不出去的BOND，那末的COMMERICAL PAPER没人买。肯定要到10月11月整个市场才能明朗。
2）不要再买MUTUAL FUND
这次MUTUAL FUND其实不该丢那末多钱，MUTUAL FUND的SETTLEMENT PERIOD太长了，要2-3天。在这种EXTRME的MARKET 2，3天市场变什么样没人知道。我也觉得那些MUTUAL FUND其实调低了自己的NAV，因为太多人要REDEMPTION. MUTUAL FUND到了这种股灾的时候绝对只有亏的，即使你看明了大市也拿MUTUAL FUND没有办法。 现在这些MUTUAL FUND大概也只能BEAT MSCI INDEX，每年3-4%, 碰到一个股灾碰到SETTLEMENT PERIOD，所有的GAIN都完全没有。
成交量小的股票也有LIQUIDILITY RISK，一碰到大市跌绝对比大股跌得多。这次我还有一只股票有价无市卖不出去。不过相比MUTUAL FUND还是好了很多，至少还是能卖出去而且自己也知道卖出去的价钱。
通过这次，我以后不再打算大量的买MUTUAL FUND，如果想要OVERSEA MARKET EXPOSURE不如买ISHARE 的MSCI INDEX。虽然这些ISHARE跌得也多，不过还是能当时就卖出去。
经过这次突然发现SETTLEMENT和那些做OPERATION的人的重要性了，在一般
MARKET CONDITION可能不觉得他们怎么的，到了这种EXTREME MARKET才明报。
因为今天美国收市稳住，然后我也觉得美国的SUBPRIME对中国的影响应该不是很大，会在星期1重新买如一些香港的股票。希望结果是好的。
Monday, 7 May 2007
something from magazine
I read some interesting articals this week probably worth writting them down
1) one way to see the liqudility in the market is to see the spread between the corporate bond and treasuries. In a market with loads of liqudility, the spread is very narrow cause all investor want to invest their money.
2)A reasearch found that only 15% of PE's return is from the value created, most return for PE is from gearing. All retail investor can replicate the return by those PE by borrowing the money to buy stocks. Private Equity generates the high return by taking more risks, it's like a man with 1M pounds he can either buy a 1M house or take a mortage to buy a 10M house, when the market goes up the increase in 10M house of course beats the return from 1M house. Those PE manager does not necessarily have more advanced skills than normal mutual fund managers. To be fair if mutual fund managers borrows money from banks to buy stocks they are sort of PE in some way.
3) In australia they start trading waters in one rivers. Each farmer allocates a quote, those who don't use all the quote can sell the quote to ones who need water. The trading, in some way, can result the water is used in the mose efficient ways, to produce same amount of food some farms use much more water than others. When the water is free, those efficent farms do not have any advantags over those inefficent farms, everything changed once water has a price. Is it a start that water will become a commodity, and possibly potential investment oppertunities. Currently there are ishares track those water compaies, in next few years to come, now, I believe water has a huge potentials
1) one way to see the liqudility in the market is to see the spread between the corporate bond and treasuries. In a market with loads of liqudility, the spread is very narrow cause all investor want to invest their money.
2)A reasearch found that only 15% of PE's return is from the value created, most return for PE is from gearing. All retail investor can replicate the return by those PE by borrowing the money to buy stocks. Private Equity generates the high return by taking more risks, it's like a man with 1M pounds he can either buy a 1M house or take a mortage to buy a 10M house, when the market goes up the increase in 10M house of course beats the return from 1M house. Those PE manager does not necessarily have more advanced skills than normal mutual fund managers. To be fair if mutual fund managers borrows money from banks to buy stocks they are sort of PE in some way.
3) In australia they start trading waters in one rivers. Each farmer allocates a quote, those who don't use all the quote can sell the quote to ones who need water. The trading, in some way, can result the water is used in the mose efficient ways, to produce same amount of food some farms use much more water than others. When the water is free, those efficent farms do not have any advantags over those inefficent farms, everything changed once water has a price. Is it a start that water will become a commodity, and possibly potential investment oppertunities. Currently there are ishares track those water compaies, in next few years to come, now, I believe water has a huge potentials
Tuesday, 24 April 2007
growth in topline and bottom line
I checked the past performance of China infrastructure machinery holdings (3339), the stock price has surged 400% last year. The one key performance of this company is a resonable topline growth can result a significantly higher bottom increase. E.g. in 2006 the sales increase 38%, the underlying profit increaed 109%. Again it's about the fixed cost and increase of gross margin.
Fixed cost may make the company more operationaly risky but it also give investor much better result of sales increase, because it will generate a much higher profit growth.
Company with very big sales and low gross margin may be a very good investment choice. A very slighly improvement in topline will give a huge return to investors.
Checks the past performance of companies and try to look for companies' performace has such parten i.e. resonable growth in topling result a massive increase in bottom line.
Fixed cost may make the company more operationaly risky but it also give investor much better result of sales increase, because it will generate a much higher profit growth.
Company with very big sales and low gross margin may be a very good investment choice. A very slighly improvement in topline will give a huge return to investors.
Checks the past performance of companies and try to look for companies' performace has such parten i.e. resonable growth in topling result a massive increase in bottom line.
Two lessons today
Lesson one, don't touch those high PE stock. Today 210 primce sucess decrease 25%, because the the annual result is only 15% growth, much below the market expectation. The PE was around 60. For a stock with high PE, there is no any safety room if the company fail to deliver. Altough the company is in a sound position the share is still very risky.
Today I also sold off a position in one stock, the stock is 10% below the pruchase price due to the new share issues. Although the compan's business looks positive, in short medium term you cannot expect the share price go up after a dillusion effect of 10%. Before make any purchase decision always check the cash position and previous capital expenditure (possibly level or working capital). If the company doesn't have enough cash they have to raise the finance one way or another, and for those company it might not be the best time to buy those shares. If really believe in their business, buy in after the share issues
Today I also sold off a position in one stock, the stock is 10% below the pruchase price due to the new share issues. Although the compan's business looks positive, in short medium term you cannot expect the share price go up after a dillusion effect of 10%. Before make any purchase decision always check the cash position and previous capital expenditure (possibly level or working capital). If the company doesn't have enough cash they have to raise the finance one way or another, and for those company it might not be the best time to buy those shares. If really believe in their business, buy in after the share issues
Monday, 23 April 2007
bond and inflation
An artical from bloomberg
A few point want to make
1) the annualised return from a treasury bill even beats the S&P return from 1984 to 2006, it is in high 10s
2) The US government issued a treasury bill with 20% coupon rate
3) Possibly this is what going to happen again, with hyper inflation rate a high yield government bonds will be issued
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In Case You Missed It: Charts Show Bond Rally Is Over (Update1)
By Elizabeth Stanton
April 23 (Bloomberg) -- The biggest bull market in U.S. Treasury bonds is over, according to the analysts who rely on historical price patterns to make their assumptions.
The proof that it now pays to be bearish can be found in financial futures based on the government's 4 3/4 percent bond maturing in 2037, a benchmark for the 22-year, 11-month rally that began in May 1984 and ended on April 6, says John Kosar, president of Asbury Research in Lake in the Hills, Illinois. That's when the price of 30-year Treasury bonds for delivery on the Chicago Board of Trade fell below 110 20/32 and signaled a new direction for the market, he said.
The turning point was so obvious that even ``a five-year- old who has a ruler and a pencil can draw a line under the lows and make a determination'' that bond yields have bottomed and are poised to climb for many years to come.
While former traders like Kosar don't get much respect in academic circles, they insist their charts confirm what some investors already know: ``that inflation is the issue,'' he said.
The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, the price index for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy, has been 2 percent or higher since April 2004. In the previous eight years, it topped that level during only six months. Core inflation was as high as 4.7 percent in 1984 when 30-year bond yields rose to 13.9 percent.
Twin Deficits
``There have been only three reversals into rising rate cycles in the last 200 years; we are in the fourth,'' said Louise Yamada, the former chief technical analyst at Citigroup Inc. who now runs Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors LLC in New York. Yamada, who started as a technical analyst at Smith Barney in 1980 and was top ranked in Institutional Investor magazine's annual survey from 2001 through 2004, says that while previous bull markets in U.S. bonds ranged from 26 to 37 years, the most recent one was the biggest.
Investors who bought Treasuries in 1981 reaped almost twice the returns as those who bet on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.
Bill Gross, who manages the world's biggest bond fund as chief investment officer of Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., says yields must rise in coming decades to attract the foreign capital needed to finance record federal budget and trade deficits.
The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the deficit will widen to $304 billion in fiscal 2009. The gap in goods and services traded totaled $58.4 billion in February. A 1 percentage point increase in the deficit as a share of gross domestic product, lasting for three years, adds as much as 0.5 percentage point to 10-year note yields, according to a 2005 study by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Volcker, Greenspan
Peter G. Peterson, the chairman of Blackstone Group LP, saw the same outcome in his 2004 book ``Running on Empty: How the Democratic and Republican Parties Are Bankrupting Our Future and What Americans Can Do About It,'' published by Picador Books (241 pages, $15.00). Peterson in 1992 co-founded the Concord Coalition, a group advocating lower budget deficits.
The rally began on Oct. 1, 1981, after Fed Chairman Paul Volcker boosted the central bank's target for overnight lending rates to a peak of 20 percent to stem inflation that was running at a 14 percent annual rate. The yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury rose as high as 15.21 percent on Oct. 26, 1981.
Treasuries gained through the 1980s and 1990s as Volcker and his successor Alan Greenspan brought consumer price increases under control. Greenspan reduced inflation below 4 percent.
`The Competitive Market'
The 13 1/4 percent bond due in 2014 that the government sold on May 15, 1984, returned an annualized 24 percent. The S&P 500 returned 13 percent, including dividends, during the same period. Bonds gained more than shares of Motorola Inc., DuPont Co. and Duke Energy Corp.
Foreign investors and central banks also drove down U.S. yields by doubling their holdings of Treasuries to $2.1 trillion in the five years ended February, according to Treasury Department data.
``It's the triumph of the competitive market,'' said Edward Yardeni, who coined the term ``bond vigilantes'' in 1983 to describe investors who protest monetary or fiscal policies they consider inflationary by selling bonds and driving up government borrowing costs. He now heads Yardeni Research Inc. in Great Neck, New York.
`Greatest Bear Market'
Yamada in 2001 correctly predicted 10-year Treasury yields would range between 3.5 percent and 5.5 percent for several years and has been right so far this year in forecasting that gold prices would rise.
The benchmark 4 5/8 percent 10-year note was 4.66 percent as of 11:15 a.m. in London, according to New York-based bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP.
The three previous shifts from declining rates to rising ones in the 206-year history of U.S. yields lasted two to 14 years, Yamada said. She analyzes trends using a mixture of interest-rates on foreign loans to the republic in the late 1700s, yields on New England municipal bonds in the 19th century, and high-quality corporate and Treasury yields in the past 100 years.
The rise in bond yields from 1946 to 1981 ``was the modern world's greatest bear market in bond prices,'' said James Grant, publisher of Grant's Interest Rate Observer in New York. The decline in yields to four-decade lows in June 2003 ``began what may prove to be another long-lived march upward, and will probably carry longer and further than people can imagine.''
`Pedestal With Alchemy'
Technical analysis was used by rice farmers in 17th-century Japan to monitor and forecast crop prices. It was popularized by Charles Dow, creator of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1896. Technical analysis is based on the theory that a chart of the price of any asset or index contains clues about future movements.
Burton Malkiel, a Princeton University professor, criticized chart analysis more than thirty years ago. In his 1973 best-seller, ``A Random Walk Down Wall Street,'' published by W.W. Norton & Co. (414 pages, $19.77), he wrote that ``under scientific scrutiny chart reading must share a pedestal with alchemy.'' Malkiel was traveling and didn't respond to a request to comment.
``Whether the blue line crosses the red line matters very little to us at Hoisington Management,'' said Lacy Hunt, chief economist at the Austin, Texas-based firm. Hoisington oversees almost $5 billion of Treasuries and has beaten the Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond index by 2.5 percentage points a year on average over the past five years.
Resume Decline
Hunt says Treasury yields will resume their decline, pushing 30-year bond yields to a record low of 3.5 percent in the coming years as economic growth slows in response to the Fed's 17 interest rate increases since June 2004.
Some chart readers say the rally in Treasuries ended two years ago. A line drawn from the 10-year note's yield peak of 15.8 percent in September 1981 through the December 1999 high of about 6.9 percent was broken as the yield rose in August 2005.
``When I go out to a client I bring a long-term chart like that,'' said Walter Burke, a technical market strategist at Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York. It ``certainly indicates the trend is trying to change.''
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A few point want to make
1) the annualised return from a treasury bill even beats the S&P return from 1984 to 2006, it is in high 10s
2) The US government issued a treasury bill with 20% coupon rate
3) Possibly this is what going to happen again, with hyper inflation rate a high yield government bonds will be issued
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In Case You Missed It: Charts Show Bond Rally Is Over (Update1)
By Elizabeth Stanton
April 23 (Bloomberg) -- The biggest bull market in U.S. Treasury bonds is over, according to the analysts who rely on historical price patterns to make their assumptions.
The proof that it now pays to be bearish can be found in financial futures based on the government's 4 3/4 percent bond maturing in 2037, a benchmark for the 22-year, 11-month rally that began in May 1984 and ended on April 6, says John Kosar, president of Asbury Research in Lake in the Hills, Illinois. That's when the price of 30-year Treasury bonds for delivery on the Chicago Board of Trade fell below 110 20/32 and signaled a new direction for the market, he said.
The turning point was so obvious that even ``a five-year- old who has a ruler and a pencil can draw a line under the lows and make a determination'' that bond yields have bottomed and are poised to climb for many years to come.
While former traders like Kosar don't get much respect in academic circles, they insist their charts confirm what some investors already know: ``that inflation is the issue,'' he said.
The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, the price index for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy, has been 2 percent or higher since April 2004. In the previous eight years, it topped that level during only six months. Core inflation was as high as 4.7 percent in 1984 when 30-year bond yields rose to 13.9 percent.
Twin Deficits
``There have been only three reversals into rising rate cycles in the last 200 years; we are in the fourth,'' said Louise Yamada, the former chief technical analyst at Citigroup Inc. who now runs Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors LLC in New York. Yamada, who started as a technical analyst at Smith Barney in 1980 and was top ranked in Institutional Investor magazine's annual survey from 2001 through 2004, says that while previous bull markets in U.S. bonds ranged from 26 to 37 years, the most recent one was the biggest.
Investors who bought Treasuries in 1981 reaped almost twice the returns as those who bet on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.
Bill Gross, who manages the world's biggest bond fund as chief investment officer of Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., says yields must rise in coming decades to attract the foreign capital needed to finance record federal budget and trade deficits.
The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the deficit will widen to $304 billion in fiscal 2009. The gap in goods and services traded totaled $58.4 billion in February. A 1 percentage point increase in the deficit as a share of gross domestic product, lasting for three years, adds as much as 0.5 percentage point to 10-year note yields, according to a 2005 study by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Volcker, Greenspan
Peter G. Peterson, the chairman of Blackstone Group LP, saw the same outcome in his 2004 book ``Running on Empty: How the Democratic and Republican Parties Are Bankrupting Our Future and What Americans Can Do About It,'' published by Picador Books (241 pages, $15.00). Peterson in 1992 co-founded the Concord Coalition, a group advocating lower budget deficits.
The rally began on Oct. 1, 1981, after Fed Chairman Paul Volcker boosted the central bank's target for overnight lending rates to a peak of 20 percent to stem inflation that was running at a 14 percent annual rate. The yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury rose as high as 15.21 percent on Oct. 26, 1981.
Treasuries gained through the 1980s and 1990s as Volcker and his successor Alan Greenspan brought consumer price increases under control. Greenspan reduced inflation below 4 percent.
`The Competitive Market'
The 13 1/4 percent bond due in 2014 that the government sold on May 15, 1984, returned an annualized 24 percent. The S&P 500 returned 13 percent, including dividends, during the same period. Bonds gained more than shares of Motorola Inc., DuPont Co. and Duke Energy Corp.
Foreign investors and central banks also drove down U.S. yields by doubling their holdings of Treasuries to $2.1 trillion in the five years ended February, according to Treasury Department data.
``It's the triumph of the competitive market,'' said Edward Yardeni, who coined the term ``bond vigilantes'' in 1983 to describe investors who protest monetary or fiscal policies they consider inflationary by selling bonds and driving up government borrowing costs. He now heads Yardeni Research Inc. in Great Neck, New York.
`Greatest Bear Market'
Yamada in 2001 correctly predicted 10-year Treasury yields would range between 3.5 percent and 5.5 percent for several years and has been right so far this year in forecasting that gold prices would rise.
The benchmark 4 5/8 percent 10-year note was 4.66 percent as of 11:15 a.m. in London, according to New York-based bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP.
The three previous shifts from declining rates to rising ones in the 206-year history of U.S. yields lasted two to 14 years, Yamada said. She analyzes trends using a mixture of interest-rates on foreign loans to the republic in the late 1700s, yields on New England municipal bonds in the 19th century, and high-quality corporate and Treasury yields in the past 100 years.
The rise in bond yields from 1946 to 1981 ``was the modern world's greatest bear market in bond prices,'' said James Grant, publisher of Grant's Interest Rate Observer in New York. The decline in yields to four-decade lows in June 2003 ``began what may prove to be another long-lived march upward, and will probably carry longer and further than people can imagine.''
`Pedestal With Alchemy'
Technical analysis was used by rice farmers in 17th-century Japan to monitor and forecast crop prices. It was popularized by Charles Dow, creator of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1896. Technical analysis is based on the theory that a chart of the price of any asset or index contains clues about future movements.
Burton Malkiel, a Princeton University professor, criticized chart analysis more than thirty years ago. In his 1973 best-seller, ``A Random Walk Down Wall Street,'' published by W.W. Norton & Co. (414 pages, $19.77), he wrote that ``under scientific scrutiny chart reading must share a pedestal with alchemy.'' Malkiel was traveling and didn't respond to a request to comment.
``Whether the blue line crosses the red line matters very little to us at Hoisington Management,'' said Lacy Hunt, chief economist at the Austin, Texas-based firm. Hoisington oversees almost $5 billion of Treasuries and has beaten the Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond index by 2.5 percentage points a year on average over the past five years.
Resume Decline
Hunt says Treasury yields will resume their decline, pushing 30-year bond yields to a record low of 3.5 percent in the coming years as economic growth slows in response to the Fed's 17 interest rate increases since June 2004.
Some chart readers say the rally in Treasuries ended two years ago. A line drawn from the 10-year note's yield peak of 15.8 percent in September 1981 through the December 1999 high of about 6.9 percent was broken as the yield rose in August 2005.
``When I go out to a client I bring a long-term chart like that,'' said Walter Burke, a technical market strategist at Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York. It ``certainly indicates the trend is trying to change.''
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