2月27，2007。 中国股市以下跌了10%，居然全球的股市都跟着跌了。Dow 跟着跌了3%。真没想到中国的股市现在这莫有影响力了，不过我个人感觉还是股市都好了4年了，人人的神经都开始紧张了，一下有了点动静人人都开始抛了。我个人还是不大觉得这次是股灾了，2月28也就是今天上海股市又涨了3%。等这个星期过了后就知道大概的影响有多大了。
不过这也算是我的第一次小股灾了，portfolio从150跌到了142。也学到点了东西
1）以前升得猛的跌得也猛
像以前狂升的1171，2345这次也是跌得最厉害的。 以前没怎莫波动的股票这次也没受很多影响。特别是那些平时交易量就不大的股票，这次也没什莫影响。像610这种没被FUND粘手的这次都没怎莫动。 这也印证了PETER LYNCH说的还没被fund发现的好股有最好的return.
2）炒概念的股票还是不要碰了
像2345这种完全是炒asset injection的股票以后还是不碰了，说不定哪天就破
3）投资还是要看公司的FUNDEMENTAL
这次很多买的公司我其实也不紧张，像135。如果是被UNDERVALUED的公司总有一天会涨得。
4）高PE的公司还是少碰
这次210也跌了不少，公司本身其实还是满好的，不过pe也很高，人人对他的EXPECTATION也高。这种公司波动也大，以后还是要小心
通过这一次我认识到了买股票真的要买FUNDEMENTAL，而且是要被UNDERVALUED。一定要对买进的每只股票有了解，作一个真正的value investor.
以后买股票PE上了25的不买，一定要了解公司的FUNDEMENTAL，不要去炒概念，像什莫ASSET INJECTION，新的法规出台压这种。这些东西到底有多少能落到实处，又能什莫时候落到实处都是未知。
Wednesday, 28 February 2007
Sunday, 25 February 2007
yanzhou coal another COSCO? Ref (行业复苏）
Yanzhou coal now trading at 7.9 about a 24% return, but now UBS report give the target price of 10.4. Now is yanzhou coal another COSCO? Does history repeat so quickly now?
1) Coal price is up
It's also a sort of turnaround for the industry. And given yanzhou coal's cost is more than its peers, the increase a goal price should have a greater impact on the bottom line. E.g. two factories both produce coals, one use 80 and another use 60 to produce one unit. When price is 100, profit for two is 20 and 40 respectivly. If price increase to 120, profit for two is 40 and 60, one is an increase of 100% another is an increse of 50%. Therefore yanzhou coal should benefits more from the increase in the coal price than its peers.
2) Fundemental is not that good for yanzhou coal
Yanzhou coal has some production problems recent years, not sure if it's one off issue or not. Although UBS target price is 10.4, it also forcast an decrease in profit of 12% or so.
3)Market attention
Yanzhou coal also has the market attention as COSCO had, the price has increased 3% while market as whole was falling last friday.
Is yanzhou coal another COSCO for me? Everything is so smiliar except that the fundemental for yanzhou coal is not as good as COSCO. However given the market attention and recent performance of the stock price, I tend to believe yanzhou coal is another COSCO for me. Am I right this time? Only time will tell, let's wait for about 2 weeks to one month and see if the yanzhou coal can reach $9.5.
1) Coal price is up
It's also a sort of turnaround for the industry. And given yanzhou coal's cost is more than its peers, the increase a goal price should have a greater impact on the bottom line. E.g. two factories both produce coals, one use 80 and another use 60 to produce one unit. When price is 100, profit for two is 20 and 40 respectivly. If price increase to 120, profit for two is 40 and 60, one is an increase of 100% another is an increse of 50%. Therefore yanzhou coal should benefits more from the increase in the coal price than its peers.
2) Fundemental is not that good for yanzhou coal
Yanzhou coal has some production problems recent years, not sure if it's one off issue or not. Although UBS target price is 10.4, it also forcast an decrease in profit of 12% or so.
3)Market attention
Yanzhou coal also has the market attention as COSCO had, the price has increased 3% while market as whole was falling last friday.
Is yanzhou coal another COSCO for me? Everything is so smiliar except that the fundemental for yanzhou coal is not as good as COSCO. However given the market attention and recent performance of the stock price, I tend to believe yanzhou coal is another COSCO for me. Am I right this time? Only time will tell, let's wait for about 2 weeks to one month and see if the yanzhou coal can reach $9.5.
Saturday, 24 February 2007
ROCE 和 WACC
以前很早就记住了这个,突然这几天搞不怎么懂了.现在把它写下来
用EVA(ECONOMY VALUE ADDED) MODEL来说,一个公司再创造出来的价值就是 CAPITAL EMPLOYED *(ROCE - WACC).
也就是说如果一个公司的ROCE大于WACC,那就说明这个公司本身的价值还在提高. 资金的回报率一定要大于资金的成本,这样公司才有赚到钱. 有时候看到不少公司,BALANCE SHEET越做越大,PROFIT好象也在涨. 但其实公司本身价值并没有提高. FOR EXAMPLE.
一个公司通过卖EQUITY和DEBT,融资了1000万. 今年的GROSS PROFIT也多了100万, 但是公司的WACC是12%.也就是说这个公司其实价值是减少了20万. 因为这1000万的ROCE比WACC少,I.E. 公司从这1000万里面创造的价值还不如融资的成本.
投资一个公司,如果公司的NET PROFIT增加了.要看这个PROFIT是怎么增加的,是ORGANIC GROW出来的还是通过REINVEST出来的.如果是REINVEST,那增加的PROFIT能不能多过COST OF REINVESTED CAPITAL. 这里的REINVESTED CAPITAL不光是指NEWLY ISSUED DEBT AND EQUITY, 往往更多的REINVESTED CAPITAL是从RETAINED PROFIT里面拿出来的.
这又有了个新TOPIC, GROWTH RATE = PROFIT RETENTION RATE * RETURN ON EQUITY. 这样一个公司能大概FORCAST下公司的GROWTH RATE, 不过这个FORMULA更多是RECHECK下ASSUMPTION是不是做得有道理.毕竟要分析出公司的好坏增长说到底还是要靠FUNDEMENTAL.
用EVA(ECONOMY VALUE ADDED) MODEL来说,一个公司再创造出来的价值就是 CAPITAL EMPLOYED *(ROCE - WACC).
也就是说如果一个公司的ROCE大于WACC,那就说明这个公司本身的价值还在提高. 资金的回报率一定要大于资金的成本,这样公司才有赚到钱. 有时候看到不少公司,BALANCE SHEET越做越大,PROFIT好象也在涨. 但其实公司本身价值并没有提高. FOR EXAMPLE.
一个公司通过卖EQUITY和DEBT,融资了1000万. 今年的GROSS PROFIT也多了100万, 但是公司的WACC是12%.也就是说这个公司其实价值是减少了20万. 因为这1000万的ROCE比WACC少,I.E. 公司从这1000万里面创造的价值还不如融资的成本.
投资一个公司,如果公司的NET PROFIT增加了.要看这个PROFIT是怎么增加的,是ORGANIC GROW出来的还是通过REINVEST出来的.如果是REINVEST,那增加的PROFIT能不能多过COST OF REINVESTED CAPITAL. 这里的REINVESTED CAPITAL不光是指NEWLY ISSUED DEBT AND EQUITY, 往往更多的REINVESTED CAPITAL是从RETAINED PROFIT里面拿出来的.
这又有了个新TOPIC, GROWTH RATE = PROFIT RETENTION RATE * RETURN ON EQUITY. 这样一个公司能大概FORCAST下公司的GROWTH RATE, 不过这个FORMULA更多是RECHECK下ASSUMPTION是不是做得有道理.毕竟要分析出公司的好坏增长说到底还是要靠FUNDEMENTAL.
行业复苏
前几天我把1919 中国远洋6。4左右给卖了，虽然也差不多赚了30%，这支股票卖了以后一直狂涨现在都快到8快了，总结精炼教训如下几条
1）这支股票继续还在涨的原因是航运业复苏了，运费提高了。
一个行业才刚开始复苏，作为这个行业里面的大型企业股票是会涨下去的。我因为看到了有30%的利润就给卖了，千不该万不该。一个才复苏的行业肯定会得到市场的关注，这好比是卖掉了一个才在上生阶段的公司。
2）这支股票是在大盘小跌的情况下大涨得
既然大盘都在跌，股票还在涨就说明了有资金在关注，在结合行业在复苏所以上深有空间。
1）这支股票继续还在涨的原因是航运业复苏了，运费提高了。
一个行业才刚开始复苏，作为这个行业里面的大型企业股票是会涨下去的。我因为看到了有30%的利润就给卖了，千不该万不该。一个才复苏的行业肯定会得到市场的关注，这好比是卖掉了一个才在上生阶段的公司。
2）这支股票是在大盘小跌的情况下大涨得
既然大盘都在跌，股票还在涨就说明了有资金在关注，在结合行业在复苏所以上深有空间。
Monday, 19 February 2007
Lesson 1
Last friday when I read the news on e-fint.com, I suddenly saw a 7% surge in guotaijunan (218, the broker) stock price. The profit for guotaijunan has increse 500%.
The stock market was really bullish from last year, trading volumn has increased significantly. When I start trading I have already know this, why I did not buy in any shares of broker and the stock exchange (HK stock exchange price has increased a lot as well).
One lesson of the investment when there were many gold digger rush to california, not all of them made the millionair, but Levis who made jeans for those gold digger made a billioniar. When an industry is doing well, it's risky to pick the winner among all companines in the industry, it's much safter to pick the firm who serves most companies in that industry.
As Peter Lynch said the oppertunities are in your life, just need to watch it out.
As today 218 is trading at $2.5, I probably take some position in as I do think the stock market has at least 1 or 2 year to run which can give some support to the broker's stock price.
The stock market was really bullish from last year, trading volumn has increased significantly. When I start trading I have already know this, why I did not buy in any shares of broker and the stock exchange (HK stock exchange price has increased a lot as well).
One lesson of the investment when there were many gold digger rush to california, not all of them made the millionair, but Levis who made jeans for those gold digger made a billioniar. When an industry is doing well, it's risky to pick the winner among all companines in the industry, it's much safter to pick the firm who serves most companies in that industry.
As Peter Lynch said the oppertunities are in your life, just need to watch it out.
As today 218 is trading at $2.5, I probably take some position in as I do think the stock market has at least 1 or 2 year to run which can give some support to the broker's stock price.
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